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When considering what to do about climate change,

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it’s helpful to think about it in terms of managing risk.

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Every one of us confronts various kinds of risks on a regular basis,

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from mundane risks like

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climbing a stepladder to replace a lightbulb,

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to highly consequential risks,

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like undergoing open-heart surgery.

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Whether or not we’re aware of it,

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each of these risks involves two steps:

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estimating how likely something is to happen,

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and assessing the costs and benefits,

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both in human and monetary terms.

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What do we know about the probabilities and

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costs of climate change?

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And how should we consider tail risks:

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unlikely scenarios with potentially

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catastrophic outcomes?